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From The Market Ticker

The testimony and questioning this morning is rather interesting….

Ryan is going to town on him as I write this and I have to wonder if he reads Tickers, as he’s pointing out:

• He’s bailing out fiscal policy with near-zero interest rates.  That is, we are able to run trillion dollar plus deficits because he is playing with ZIRP and QE.  Ryan basically told Bernanke that Congress is not comprised of adults and that Bernanke must pull system liquidity in order to force Congress to do its job!
• He used the words stable prices.  What he did not do is bend him over the desk and give him one or two good ones from behind on the “2% inflation” game, but it’s a start.
• He’s pointing out that trashing saver’s investment income and forcing them into risk is counter-productive.  Mr. Ryan recognizes capital formation will get the job done?  THAT is a change.
• He called him out on creating the housing bubble.  Heh heh heh…..

There’s more — but this is a change, and a marked one, in how the questioning is unfolding.  With that, here’s my commentary on the testimony.

February 2, 2012

Chairman Ryan, Vice Chairman Garrett, Ranking Member Van Hollen, and other members of the Committee, I appreciate this opportunity to discuss my views on the economic outlook, monetary policy, and the challenges facing federal fiscal policymakers.

The Economic Outlook
Over

…

From Total Survivalist Libertarian Rantfest

Today we will do a sort of overview of bolt action rifles. I will discuss their strengths and weaknesses in general and also delve into some specific models. This will not be all encompassing in nature and will be relatively brief when discussing military surplus bolt action rifles. My knowledge and interests do not lend me to going into depth. Also I just don’t see a point in it considering there are multiple books written about different variations of specific rifles.

First of all we will look on the most basic level at what bolt action rifles are. Bolt action rifles are rifles where the bolt is manually cycled for each shot. Cycling the bolt is typically done by a small handle attached to the bolt. When the bolt is cycled it ejects the spent casing, grabs a new round from the magazine, loads the round and cocks the rifle. Magazines are usually a fixed, internal box though some are removable. Bolt action rifles are almost all very similar in nature and most use a Mauser design from the late 19th century.

There are two real roles I see bolt action rifles filling for modern defensive shooters (versus collectors or hobbyists) and survivalists. Those roles are as a precision mid to long distance rifle and as a low cost rifle. They are also useful for hunting in general and particularly as a platform for powerful dangerous game rounds but that outside of the…

From What if IT is today? – A Survivalist’s Blog

Before you start thinking about cute little nicknames people call each other, that’s not what I’m writing about.  The other day, when I gave one of my chickens away, I was asked what her name was.  What do you mean what is her name?  It’s a chicken.  One of 30! 

I name my pets.  My cats and dogs get names.  Girl does not name her guppies.  Nor do we name the goldfish in the stock tank in the front pasture.  We had goldfish in the stock tank in the back pasture until the ducks discovered them. 

I used to name my sheep though I don’t anymore.  This was when I only had a few.  Their names were Olive Ewe (I love you), Olive II (I love you too), Girly Sheepy, Boyly Sheepy, Bo (Rambo), Rod (Ramrod).  My favorite was Goat Goat.  She was a goat.  We’ve raised a couple of steers – Chuck and Dinner.  We were always warned: Don’t name the animals you are going to eat.  Your kids won’t eat their “pets”.  Sure they will because they weren’t pets.  We have food animals and pet animals.  One of my goats was a pet but her offspring, food.  They all had names.   

I stopped naming the sheep when the herd got up to 24 a couple of years ago.  That was before the mountain lion took away almost all of them.  We don’t name the…

From SurvivalBlog.com

The following are my observations based upon my experience with the care and processing of small livestock, living in a hot and humid climate on the Gulf of Mexico

Poultry:

Chicks of all species need warmth for their first few weeks, but on the Gulf Coast, and anywhere else with a hot climate, it’s easy to overheat them. If you’re keeping the birds outside, and it’s anything over 80F or so, they probably do not need additional heat from a heat lamp or other source. Generally, I would take away a heat lamp and use a regular incandescent bulb if the temperatures were regularly over 65ish. If it is cool enough to still require external heating, keep the lamp off to one side of the enclosure. Be very careful to "round out" any corners the enclosure may have, particularly when the chicks are very young. Chicks pile up on top of each other and suffocation is a common cause of death in the early days. Ensuring there is enough room for all of the chicks also helps decrease the chance of suffocation.

[JWR Adds: In our experience, an oval galvanized steel livestock water tank works quite well for raising chicks. Add a screen of chicken wire across the top to keep out curious cats and to restrain hopping chicks. By placing a 200 watt heat lamp at one end of the tank, allowing the chicks to choose a place with a comfortable…

Preparing for a SHTF could not be more enjoyable! this community is awesome and has made disaster preparedness more fun and such a great time… who would have ever imagined! gun reviews, knife reviews, gear reviews, prepping, food storage, disaster preparedness is all so much fun here in this community! thanks every one!
Video Rating: 4 / 5

From Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis

Last month Trim Tabs estimated December payroll growth was 38,000. ADP estimated payroll growth at 325,000. I estimated +78,000.

The BLS reported +200,000.

For details, please see Nonfarm Payroll +200,000 ; Labor Force Drops Another 50,000 ; Those Not in Labor Force Rises by 194,000 ; Unemployment Rate 8.5%

Was this a miss by Trim Tabs? ADP? Me?

Here is the correct answer, whether or not you believe the BLS: I don’t know and no one else does either.

Seasonal Adjustments

The BLS numbers are subject to massive revisions. Literally millions of jobs are revised away (or added) months, even years later. December and January are typically the hardest months to estimate, subject to huge seasonal adjustments and later revisions.

Economic Turning Points

Economic turning points compound the problem greatly. The BLS readily admits its birth-death adjustments are hugely wrong at turning points.

Are we at an economic turning point now? I think so, and a turn in supporting data is all I need to convince me. If so, the BLS can be off on its numbers by a great deal.

Trim Tabs Fearless Forecast

The following weekly macro analysis and forecast (via email) is from Madeline Schnapp, Director, Macroeconomic Research, Trim Tabs. The above title is mine.

Jobs: Based on our analysis of real-time income tax withholdings, we estimate that the U.S. economy added only 45,000 jobs in January, little changed from 38,000 in

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From The Market Ticker

This was a surprise?

Confidence among U.S. consumers unexpectedly dropped in January as gasoline prices picked up and more Americans said jobs were hard to get.

The Conference Board’s confidence index fell to 61.1 from a revised 64.8 reading in the prior month, figures from the New York-based private research group showed today. The median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News called for a rise to 68. The figure was lower than the most pessimistic projection.

Why is this a surprise?  As I noted early in the month the Employment Report, which many said showed “improvement” with a +200k headline number, in fact showed job loss when one looked at the household survey, and it is actual consumers who buy actual things, not government fudge-boxes!

Of course we can’t have the truth in the mainstream media off those reports, can we?  Never mind that other data has showed a contracting consumer spending appetite and more desperation as credit is being used once again in a “last gasp” attempt to avoid insolvency.

The data is all around you if you care to look — the consumer is collapsing as there has been no recovery of materiality in employment.  Just look at the labor participation rate!

Recovery….. where?

Wake up America.  The government’s policy of ladling out “free cheese” in an attempt to prevent the adjustment of the economy back to what…

From The Economic Collapse

Have you ever watched a football game or a basketball game where one team dominates the other team so badly that calling it a “blowout” would be a huge understatement?  Well, that is what China is doing to the United States.  China is absolutely destroying America on the global economic stage.  Once upon a time, the Chinese economy was a joke and the U.S. economy was the most powerful the world had ever seen.  But over the past couple of decades the U.S. economy has decayed and declined while the Chinese economy has skyrocketed.  Today, China makes more steel, more automobiles, more beer, more cotton, more coal and more solar panels than we do.  China has the fastest train in the world, the fastest computer in the world and they export twice as much high-tech equipment as we do.  In 2011, our trade deficit with China was the largest trade deficit that one nation has had with another nation in the history of the world, and China has now accumulated more than 3 trillion dollars in foreign currency reserves.  Every single day, we lose more jobs, more businesses and more of our national wealth to China.  In technical economic terms, China has “taken us out behind the woodshed” and has beaten the living daylights out of us.  Unfortunately, most Americans are so addicted to entertainment that they don’t even…

From Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis

Best Business Blogs 2011

Strategist News presents the Best Business Blogs 2011

This is our third year publishing this ranking. The business blogs field is getting more competitive than ever! Seth Godin continues to dominate the business blogosphere, while Guy Kawasaki and Robert Scoble still rule.

This year we made a major change to our methodology. From this year on, we will only include standalone blogs of individuals. We have excluded all companies, newspapers, brands and groups. Why did we do this? Because we want to celebrate the individual writers. Not corporations. We do not want to be influenced by business models or advertising to skew the results. We just want to rank the best writing, period. So here they are…

Business Blogs vs. Financial Blogs

I came in 14th on the “business blog” list, but have to admit that I never heard of most of the sites selected by Strategist News.

Then again,  the concept of “business blogs” encompasses a broad range of categories including  marketing, careers, work finance, technology, small business, entrepreneurship, personal finance, microfinance, project management, and numerous other categories.

The categories are so broad, I am pleased to be on the list at all. Calculated Risk and Barry Ritholtz (Big Picture) were also on the list, in well-deserved positions of 5 and 8 respectively.

For those not familiar with the columns “Alexa Rank” and “Google Page Rank” in the above link, the…

From SHTF blog

National Geographic’s new series, Doomsday Preppers, premiers with back-to-back episodes on Tuesday, February 7, at 9 p.m. ET/PT. National Geographic contacted me last week and said, “We want you to preview the show.” I said, “okay.” Then they overnight this action:

I open it and …

Nifty little “survival pack” marketing idea. I’d touch on the contents, but frankly, it’s more marketing than practical, so let’s skip that and cut to the show, which National Geographic describes as:

Doomsday Preppers explores the lives of otherwise ordinary Americans who are preparing for the end of the world as we know it. Unique in their beliefs, motivations, and strategies, preppers will go to whatever lengths they can to make sure they are prepared for any of life’s uncertainties. And with our expert’s assessment, they will find out their chances of survival if their worst fears become a reality.

That sounds fairly accurate based on the three profiles I saw on the pre-screening DVD they sent. What did I think? Well … it’s made for television. Sounds obvious, but what I mean is, it’s … dramatized. You know the drill, they profile someone or some people, play dramatic music, accentuate dramatic points, and generally try to stir the pot a bit. I wonder what the non-prepper watching the show will think of it, because for me, it was hard to watch it without critiquing the folks and their preps as the…