It’s finally here. The information show you have all been waiting for! I’ve been canning all day so this show will be very laid back. Please stop by and say hello.

Tip # 7: Since a crucial part of self reliance is information your tip for today is the listen to READY OR NOT. If you can’t listen tonight the show will be available for download at the same link as the live show. Hope to hear from you tonight!

http://www.blogtalkradio.com/doctorprepper/2010/09/08/ready-or-not–carolyn-nicolaysen

Review…Tips

#1:  Find an out of area contact.

#2: Gather maps.  Get several different colors of highlighters and mark at least three different routes out of the city and  ending at the home of your out of area contact.

#3: Collect all your flashlights. Check  to make sure they are all working properly. Make note of any batteries you need to purchase.

#4 Post important phone numbers and your own address by each phone.

#5 Place a pair of good shoes under each bed where they can be reached in the middle of the night.

#6 Place a glow stick next to each bed.

Back tomorrow with number eight!

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Back issues: Totally Ready Newsletters July 2009- June 2010

September Newsletter:

Let’s Play…a look at things to do during a power outage to keep sane.

Food Safety…keeping foods safe during a power outage.

Frozen Food During a Power Outage, when to save and when to throw away.

Dutch Oven Cooking…How to Control the Temperature

Haybox Cooking…one more way to cook when the grid goes down.

Recipes: This month all the recipes are from 1850. They are fun and easy to make and perfect during power emergencies, after all our great grandparents didn’t have electricity!

The ability to adapt is a critical tool for your survival. Many people can easily adjust to a wide variety of circumstances in order to deal with the different situations that can arise during their daily lives. Meanwhile, others will remain unyielding and go into extreme denial because they dislike change and prefer the familiarity of their established routine. By having confidence in your abilities during a crisis or an emergency, your ability to adapt to abrupt and life-changing events will help to make you a survivor.

Adaptability compromises a number of different traits that can help you to survive. The first thing you should remember is to be flexible. Quite often there are numerous ways to accomplish a given task if given enough thought. Your brain is your best survival tool; you just need to remember to use it when needed. Remember not to limit your options by thinking it can’t be done and think in terms of how it can be done. You will need to create goals and be ready to make any necessary changes to your situation in order to survive.

Avoid going into a state of denial that will not allow you to adapt properly to your circumstances. You are only fooling yourself if you refuse to accept that your situation has changed because of a crisis or an emergency. If you act like nothing has changed, it will be harder for you to accept that change and make the necessary adjustments to get your life back on track. Your life can change quicker than the weather and you will need to stay tuned to your environment. By realizing this, you will be ready to make the required changes in order to survive.

Our survival has depended largely upon our ability to adapt and it is this ability that has allowed us to succeed in our goals for making a better life for ourselves. The saying originated by Herbert Spencer back in 1864 “survival of the fittest” was actually meant to describe how well a species was suited to their environment. It is our ability to adapt to our environment that has allowed us to survive some of the most hazardous and extreme conditions known to man.

Got adaptability?

Staying above the water line!

Riverwalker

‎”One day man will connect his apparatus to the very wheel work of the
universe… and the very forces that motivate the planets in their
orbits and cause them to rotate will rotate his own machinery,” Nikola Tesla.

I have the Myth-Busters to thank for the title of today’s post.
They claim that free energy is an illusion.
Well, Myth-Busters, Yer busted. Face it. You couldn’t even assemble a Bedini mono-pole correctly. Trying out the Minto wheel, You failed miserably again.
The rest of the show was more of the same. Funny, because I was handed links to the episodes in question as proof positive that the said devices didn’t work as advertised.
Another device You panned down was this free energy circuit. I have seen output of 3.5 volts to 14.5 volts on the circuit. The trick to the circuit is all in the capacitors to a point. Capacitors tend to charge up by themselves if not stored with the leads shorted. The second secret to it is the antenna. to get more current from the circuit, The experimenter needs to tune the antenna to resonant frequencies. In other words you need to match the antenna to the various frequencies to maximize the output. I decided in my adaptation of  the device to use a “birdcage antenna” or a cage dipole. 6 to 12 wires arranged in parallel. I haven’t been through all the combinations as of yet.
Combinations being: Vertical 30 foot, Horizontal east west orientation, Horizontal north south, And combinations of the strands, not to mention various loadings of the antenna.
Dumping the antenna lead through a redundant lightning arrester.
I used homemade capacitors for my first try. Beer bottle saltwater types.
Leyden jars in the modern age. DIY capacitor link.
The plan calls for certain caps of various farad ratings and my plan is to substitute the salt water caps rated at each point in the circuit using way beeg leyden jars at the location of the electrolytic can caps. Diodes in the circuit are gang diodes in parallel. I substituted 4 diodes parallel at each diode location to insure  the circuits longevity. I’m still testing the initial circuit and may increase to 3 of these circuits in parallel to maximize output.
But, only after I max the output from the antenna single circuit combo.
A good earth ground  ( make it redundant) is key to this and other circuits success. To paraphrase a Tesla quote. “My machines have to have a firm grip of the earth, To shake the earth.”

http://paulslab.blogspot.com/2007/11/pauls-lab.html 
He has the diagram that I have been working from. I just am trying to use the older style DIY capacitors for a greater effect. O may even try some DIY diodes in the near future.

Mkay, Here’s where I has to put a
disclaimer.

Many of the devices described use or generate potentially lethal electric currents. If you use the information in this article to kill yourself, your friends, family members, acquaintances, total strangers, pets, electronic devices or burn down your house, it is so not my problem. Each individual is personally responsible for their own safety, well being, PERIOD.

From the LA Weekly blog: “The union that represents Los Angeles police on Tuesday blamed extreme agitators and even communists for the unrest that plagued the Westlake neighborhood following an officer’s shooting of a man with a knife over the Labor Day weekend. Protesters lit trash cans on fire, threw rocks and bottles at police [...]

A couple of months ago, I noticed something new on the Honeyville Farms website, a blog called ‘Cookin Cousins.’  I read a few of the entries and was pretty impressed.  Well, one of the bloggers, Tenille, posted her recipe for banana bread using freeze dried bananas, and I just had to tell you about it.

The truth around my house is that I’m just not that great of a cook.  I try, I really do, but I’m definitely not in the same league as Tenille and Callie!  Check out their blog here, and try out one or ten of their recipes!

© 2010, thesurvivalmom. All rights reserved.

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I am not a big zombie movie fan, but this show looks really good. From the same channel which brought you “Mad Men” comes “Walking Dead”.

It’s a zombie series showing on AMC and starting this Halloween. Looks very well made and a lot of fun to watch.

Zombie stories get boring to me after a while (here comes zombie, shoot zombie in heard, run away, repeat), so the story dealing with everything else other than the zombies matters to me. Critics of the graphic novel the show is based upon had heaps of praise for the story, so that makes it worth checking out.

One problem with the NBER recession dating analysis is that it is months and sometimes years late in making its assessments.

Marcelle Chauvet, professor of economics at the University of California addresses those shortfalls in an interesting article called Real Time Analysis of the U.S. Business Cycle

Although careful deliberations are applied to determine turning points, the NBER procedure cannot be used to monitor business cycles on a current basis. Generally, the committee meets months after a turning point (that is, the beginning or end of an economic recession) has occurred and releases a decision only when there is no doubt regarding the dating. This certainty can be achieved only by examining a substantial amount of ex post revised data. Thus, the NBER dating procedure cannot be used in real time. For example, the NBER announced only in July 2003, twenty months after the fact, that the 2001 recession had ended in November 2001.

Some models, however, can gauge how weak or strong the economy is and date business cycles in real time. In particular, the dynamic factor Markov switching model (DFMS) in Chauvet (1998) has been very successful in dating business cycles in real time and in closely reproducing the NBER dating.

The model yields a monthly indicator of the U.S. business cycles and probabilities of recessions and expansions when applied to the same series used by the NBER: nonagricultural employment, real personal income, real manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production.

What does the DFMS nonlinear probability model tell us about U.S. recessions?

Since 1959 the U.S. economy has experienced eight recessions. Figure 1 shows the business cycle indicator, and Figure 2 shows the smoothed probabilities of recessions obtained from the DFMS model and the NBER recession dating. The probabilities are obtained using full sample information (that is, all information available from 1959 up to now).

As Figure 2 illustrates, the probabilities increase substantially at the beginning of recessions (peaks) and decrease around the end of the recessions (troughs). Recessions are generally short, lasting on average a year, whereas expansions are much longer, averaging about five years. The 1990s experienced the longest U.S. expansion (ten years) in the past 150 years, while the 2007–09 recession was the longest in the past 50 years.

Current probability of recession

Because of a two-month delay in the availability of the manufacturing and trade sales series, the probabilities of recession are also available only with a two-month delay.

The most recent probability of recession from the DFMS model is for June 2010, which uses information up to September 2010. The probability that the U.S. economy is in a recession in June is 24.7 percent.

The Beginning and End of the 2007-2009 Recession

Inquiring minds are reading the Center for Research on Economic and Financial Cycles article dating The Beginning and End of the 2007-2009 Recession

The Figure shows the real time probabilities of recession from the Dynamic Factor Model with Regime Switching (Chauvet 1998). The probabilities indicate that the U.S. recession started in December 2007.

The NBER only announced that the recession began in December 2007 twelve months later, in December 2008.

Review of the Odds Over Time – To Date

Marcelle Chauvet updates the odds we are currently in recession in his blog
Real Time Probabilities of Recession

U.S. Recession ended in June/July 2009

Probability of Recession in June 2010 INCREASED to 24.7% after being below 10% for the last 7 months and below 50% since July 2009.

2009 January		100.0			-4.4
February		98.7			-2.8
March		96.1			-2.6
April		82.8			-0.9
May		77.2			-1.1
June		66.2			-1.6
July		27.9			0.4
August		21.9			0.4
September		18.6			-0.3
October		11.0			-0.2
November		3.1			1.1
December		2.2			0.8
2010 January		1.4			0.8
February		0.9			0.8
March		0.5			1.3
April		0.8			1.6
May		2.5			1.4
June		24.7			0.2

That is a partial table. Marcelle Chauvet shows the odds starting in October 2007. Notice how the odds the US is currently in recession have risen from 2.5% in May to 24.7% in June.

Odds Higher Today Than June

We will see the odds for August in a couple months. Those odds will be higher than today because of all the recent grim economic data.

Bear in mind Chauvet posts the odds we are already in recession. When the current odds are soaring at an amazing rate (which they are), the odds of a going into recession at a future time, will be much higher.

Some don’t see it that way.

Here is a snip is from Bloomberg as discussed in Nonsense from NBER on Odds of Double-Dip

Harvard University Professor Martin Feldstein, who sits on the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research says “There’s still a significant risk, maybe one chance in three, that there will be a double dip.” Fellow panel member and Princeton University Professor Mark Watson said those odds are “way too high” and puts them instead at “one in 10 or maybe one in 20.”

Double-dip odds of one-in-10 or one-in-20? When the odds are roughly 1-in-4 we are already in recession as of June?

If Marcelle Chauvet’s model is accurate (and assuming the recession is over, his model is the most realistic model I have seen to date), then the above snip was indeed nonsense, not from the NBER per se, but rather from one or two economists who sit on the panel, most notably Princeton University Professor Mark Watson.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Mike “Mish” Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.
Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

See, municipal systems can go bankrupt…

Sept. 7 (Bloomberg) — An Alabama Circuit Court judge said he intends to appoint a receiver to manage Jefferson Countys insolvent sewer system.

Judge Albert Johnson said in court today in Birmingham that he will interview people for the position and decide on the receivers authority.

I have just one question for the Honorable Judge Johnson: Will you charge that receiver with authority to go after the banks that were in no small part responsible for this crap, as they were involved in the hinky derivative deals and bribery that led to this outcome?

Bettye Fine Collins, president of the Jefferson County Commission, said her biggest concern is that a receiver would impose an immediate increase in sewerage charges. The commission governs the county.

That is very likely to happen.

But what a receiver might also do, and in my opinion should do, is also file civil racketeering (treble damage!) suits against each and every organization involved in this scam.

That might wake a few of those big banks up….. an event that sorely needs to happen.

On Sunday, I received an email from B.J. Lawson saying he has pulled into a small lead over incumbent David Price.

B.J. Writes …

Dear Friends,

This election will be proof positive that public sentiment has shifted towards shrinking the size of the federal government, restoring the Constitution and returning to fiscal responsibility. This shift is essential — not just for my campaign — but also for the future of our country.

My opponent, David Price, has been described as a “true blue liberal” who has fought his entire career for single payer healthcare and other big government, big spending programs. That would explain why Mr. Price has voted with Nancy Pelosi more than any other congressman. They also entered Congress together in 1987.

Washington is broken and voters are waking up.

Washington takes too much and spends too much in an attempt to be all things to all people. I am running for Congress to end runaway government spending, balance our budget, cut taxes and restore the Constitution.

If we don’t change directions in 2010, our children and future generations will suffer immensely. Our race is the perfect opportunity to send Washington D.C. a message: It’s time to stop mortgaging our children’s future and get our nation’s financial affairs in order.

I hope you will support us in this effort. There are too many issues needing our attention for us to remain silent and divided, and I hope you’ll join us in this historic race to take back our government, and our future.

Yours in Freedom,
William “BJ” Lawson
Republican for Congress North Carolina’s 4th District

Sentiment has indeed shifted. I am starting to expect a blowout in the midterm elections as
Voters Strongly Favor Non-Incumbent GOP Newcomers in Midterm Elections.

B.J. Lawson Profile

Inquiring minds will want to check out where Lawson Stands on the Issues

• Cut Taxes to Stimulate Job Growth
• Reduce the Size of Government
• Reform the Federal Regulatory Burden
• Reduce Spending to Restore Fiscal Balance
• Empower Local Education
• Restore Trust in Government

Those are highlights. Click on the above link for details.

David Price, his Democratic congressional opponent in the upcoming election admits to not reading or understanding health care legislation before voting.

Lawson says “Passing legislation that is not fully understood, or understandable, is simply legislative malpractice. We must demand better of our elected representatives if we are to restore the trust and legitimacy of our federal government.“

Charles Goyette Interview

Please click on this link to download and play this B.J. Lawson Interview with talk show host Charles Goyette.

Money is always welcome, but so is your time and energy! Please click here to Volunteer Time or Services to B.J. Lawson.

Please do what you can to support B.J. Lawson. He is of a rare Ron Paul mode, and we cannot afford to let any opportunities to elect such candidates slip through the cracks.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Mike “Mish” Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.
Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Hi Ferfal, I have enjoyed reading your posts for a couple of years now. I justwanted to quickly share some of my family’s experience with farming andsurvival to support your point about how risky it is. My father’s familycame to Canada from Italy in 1955. They lived in the mountains, a veryrural area, but only 1.5 hours from Rome with today’s highway. The postWWII decade was very difficult, a real struggle to survive in ruralItaly. Any farming activity required money and at this time there wasnone. For example, you want to raise chickens? How will you pay fortheir food? They could grow plenty of vegetables, but not enough to keepeveryone fed. There were absolutely no jobs either to supplement income.Many families were literally starving. My grandmother told me stories ofhow they would eat anything they could get there hands on: cats, dogs,owls. (Even when they came to Canada, it was hard to shake this mindset.One time they picked up a dead rabbit killed on the road.) By around1960 or so the Italian economy was booming again, and there was plentyof work and the government could afford to spend money helping farmers.But during the decade before many thousands of families had alreadyleft. What choice did they have if their children were starving? Now inCanada the Italians of rural origin are one of the richest communitiesbecause they abandoned farm life. Instead they focused on using theirother rural skills to start businesses like stone work, construction,paving, building development. Those types of business you can build andgrow every year, whereas a farm is unpredictable. Thank you for your great blog. I wish you all the best.
Marc

Thanks for your email Marc. My family’s story is somewhat similar, but taking place in Franco’s Spain. Hard times indeed.

FerFAL