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Report Shows Netherlands Would Benefit by Leaving Eurozone; Country by Country Aggregate Costs; Dutch Freedom Party Wants Euro Exit Referendum; Critical Juncture for Eurozone

From Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis

Report Shows Netherlands Would Benefit by Leaving Eurozone

Inquiring minds are reading a 73 page detailed report The Netherlands & The Euro that explains country by country why Italy, Greece, Portugal, and Spain are going to need lots more money, and the Netherlands and Germany will end up footing the bill.

The study highlights the fundamental flaws of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), the damage done by the euro to date to the Netherlands, and the potential costs down the road. The report conclusion is Netherlands should exit the EMU.

Here are some snips from the report regarding the finances of Italy, Spain, and Portugal.

Italian Projections

It cannot be assumed that roll-over of existing debt as it matures can be done with private lenders, as in the past. Italy has virtually zero real growth, and interest rates that, at 6% or so, are 4-5% ahead of likely future inflation. A government debt burden well over 100% of GDP in a country whose real interest rate exceeds its real growth rate by 4% or more is theoretically unsustainable. The debt ratio is almost certain to mount indefinitely. In this context, it is realistic to analyse a scenario in which financial markets conclude that Italy has slipped into the “Greek trap”. In that case, official Eurozone financing will be needed not just for the budget deficit, but to refinance maturing debt as well. This would be a major added

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The Market Ticker – Floridians Are About To Get Raped – Again

From The Market Ticker

You’d think that the “nobody committed any crimes” crowd could muscle up some objection to this sort of bill, but it appears they haven’t and won’t.

Indeed, the very working title of the bill is a fraud — “The Florida Fair Foreclosure Act.”

It is in fact nothing of the sort.

Any time I see a bill that replaces the word “shall” with the word “may” in virtually every instance, and it is almost-impossible to find instances of the opposite, the hair goes up on the back of my neck.  The word shall is an important one in statutory construction, as it imposes hard limits on conduct and leaves no wiggle room, where the word “may” leaves ultimate discretion to people who are, in many cases, unelected and unaccountable.

There is exactly one good thing in this bill which will be trumpeted I’m sure by its apologists — it purports to limit deficiency judgments (which are allowed in Florida) to an amount that ”may not exceed the difference between the judgment amount or, in the case of a short sale, the outstanding debt and the fair market value of the property on the date of sale.”

The problem with this alleged “limit” is the words “outstanding debt”, not “outstanding principal.”  Words matter, you see, and it is the practice of banks and servicers to lard up a foreclosure with junk fees such as force-placed insurance that they themselves own, turning a service not provided…

10 Key Outcomes From War With Iran That Few Are Talking About

From SHTF Plan – When It Hits The Fan, Don’t Say We Didn’t Warn You

Editor’s Note: Just about every decade over the last century has seen a major conflict somewhere in the world, and in one way or another the United States has found itself closely involved. While it’s impossible for us to predict exactly what leaders in America, Israel, Russia, China and Europe will do in response to claims that Iran is building nuclear weapons of mass destruction,  from a preparedness and planning standpoint it is prudent to assume the worst. Israel has repeatedly called for the military option against Iran’s unabashed nuclear ambitions, all but confirming their plans for a first strike against the mid eastern nation.

While Iran may be considered by many to be insignificant on the grand chessboard, it is anything but. We can look to history to see how quickly a seemingly peaceful and stable society can devolve into chaos. Royal Hungarian prince Archduke Franz Ferdinand may also have been considered insignificant in his day and relatively unknown to the majority of the world’s population. Yet his assassination in June of 1914 catalyzed a war that had been brewing among monarchical, political and financial circles for decades. Within a very short span of time nations were raising armies and men who had been working their fields just weeks before were marching to the front lines. Within six months battle lines had been drawn across the entire continent of Europe and millions…

Now THAT Is Cold – 19 Signs That America Is Becoming A Very Heartless Place

From The Economic Collapse

The economy is not the only thing that is wrong with America.  In order for a society to function smoothly, people need to be able to trust one another and be able to expect that most of their fellow citizens will behave in a somewhat civilized manner.  Unfortunately, we are starting to see the very fabric of our society slowly unravel all over the nation.  The truth is that America is becoming a very heartless place.  People simply do not care about one another the way that they used to in this country.  Of course there are many exceptions, but the reality is that millions of hearts are going cold from coast to coast.  In America today, we are more self-absorbed than ever, more self-centered than ever, and we are more isolated from others than ever.  Just think about the number of people that you personally interact with on a regular basis.  Unless you are involved with a very large organization such as a school or a church, it is probably a very limited number.  Our addiction to entertainment gives us the illusion of being connected to society, but the truth is that Americans spend less time personally interacting with one another than ever before.  Meanwhile, Americans are seemingly becoming more arrogant, more prideful, more angry, more brutal, more greedy and more addicted to pleasure than ever before.  When…

Disingenuous Recession Explanations from ECRI Regarding Coincident Indicators; An Email Response From ECRI; Does the ECRI Even Believe Its Own Indicators?

From Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis

Late last month in ECRI Sticks with Recession Call on CNBC; More than a Bit of an Exaggeration by Achuthan to Make His Call? I questioned the ECRI’s use of coincident indicators to make a claim regarding recession

I count three instances between 1990 and 2000 where ECRI coincident indicators flagged a recession by the methodology Achuthan cited.

I have numerous other problems historically with ECRI claims, including their alleged “perfect” track record. Please see A Look at ECRI’s Recession Predicting Track Record for details.

This time, I happen to think Achuthan has very valid points. However, once again, Achuthan has a hard time articulating them in a purely factual manner in spite of the fact he is clearly bright and articulate.

Email Response From ECRI

In response to that article, reader “Art” sent an email to the ECRI and received this email back from Melinda Hubman, ECRI Managing Director, Operations.

Hi Art,

Actually, it is incorrect to say that the U.S. Coincident Index (USCI) year-over-year growth rate dropped even more in ~91, 95 & 98 and no recession followed.

We have attached an Excel file showing the straightforward calculations, based on the USCI data available from ECRI’s website (http://www.businesscycle.com/reports_indexes/allindexes).

The latest USCI growth rate is 1.94% (which can be rounded off to 1.9%). In January 1996, it had dropped only to 2.06% (which can be rounded off to 2.1%). This was certainly not below current

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Vancouver B.C. vs. Donegal Ireland Real Estate: What Will $890,000 Buy?

From Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis

Inquiring minds seeing new data on Vancouver’s massively overpriced real estate just might be seeking new comparisons to other places. First, Let’s take a look at what $ 890,000+- will buy in Vancouver.

Vancouver Real Estate

2119 East 3rd Ave, Vancouver
MLS® Number V934050
Listing Price: $ 899,500
Description: “This 1 ? story home has been extensively renovated over the last few years. The spacious kitchen has birch cabinets and Soapstone counters and opens to a 20×12′ deck. On this level are 2 B/Rs and a modern 4pce bath. Upstairs has an office/den area, a 4pce bath and a big master B/R with a W/I closet and 12×8 view deck. The bsmt has a 1 B/R suite rented at $ 960 P.M. and the attached garage has been converted to a workshop with French doors opening to the fenced garden, with B/I bench, a patio and a kid’s sandbox. “

That creative listing puts a new meaning to the the word “upstairs”. Is the number of stories listed at “1?” really in question?

2564 East Pender Street, Vancouver
MLS® Number V930595
Listing Price: $ 899,000
Description: “Complete Transformation! Brand New Envelope! Hardie plank & cedar shingles, new windows, new electrical panel, new HW tank, new plumbing. Spacious 3 level home on extra deep lot!”

I believe it’s safe to say the above creative listing puts a new meaning to the phrase “extra deep…

Eurozone Wrapup: Unemployment Rate 10.7%, Highest Since 1999; Manufacturing PMI Contracts 7th Month; German Retail Sales Unexpectedly Fall

From Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis

There was lots of Eurozone news this week outside of the typical Greek default fodder. Nearly all of that news was not pretty. Let’s take a look at the key stories.

Eurozone Unemployment Rate 10.7%, Highest Since 1999

The Telegraph reports Eurozone unemployment hits record high of 10.7pc

Data from Eurostat showed that the region lost 185,000 jobs in one month, with the vast gap between North and South growing ever wider. The figures for the previous four months were also revised upwards sharply. There are now more than 450,000 more people without jobs than assumed a month ago.

Klaus Baader from Societe Generale said the outlook was “deteriorating drastically” in the region. “Economic slowdown and fiscal austerity has hit the labour market much harder than previously thought.”

Eurozone inflation nudged up to 2.7pc, while the latest PMI data for February confirmed that Euroland’s manufacturing is still contracting, though the index rose slighty to 49. The “misery mix” of rising unemployment and inflation is a nasty headache for policymakers, threatening incipient stagflation.

Spain’s jobless rate continued its relentless climb to 23.2pc, rising to 49.9pc for youths.

The jobless toll rose to 14.8pc in both Ireland and Portugal, though the latter began its austerity drive later. Dimitris Drakopoulos from Nomura said Portugal’s economy is likely to contract by 4.4pc this year and another 2.7pc next year, a slightly milder version of the fiscal asphyxiation that brought Greece to its knees.

Eurostat’s

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20 Signs That Dust Bowl Conditions Will Soon Return To The Heartland Of America

From The Economic Collapse

For decades, the heartland of America has been the breadbasket of the world.  Unfortunately, those days will shortly come to an end.  The central United States is rapidly drying up and dust bowl conditions will soon return.  There are a couple of major reasons for this.  Number one, the Ogallala Aquifer is being depleted at an astounding pace.  The Ogallala Aquifer is one of the largest bodies of fresh water in the entire world, and water from it currently irrigates more than 15 million acres of crops.  When that water is gone we will be in a world of hurt.  Secondly, drought conditions have become the “new normal” in many areas of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas and other states in the middle part of the country.  Scientists tell us that the wet conditions that we enjoyed for several decades after World War II were actually the exception to the rule and that most of time time the interior west is incredibly dry.  They also tell us that when dust bowl conditions return to the area, they might stay with us a lot longer than a decade like they did during the 1930s.  Unfortunately, without water you cannot grow food, and with global food supplies as tight as they are right now we cannot afford to have a significant decrease in agricultural production.  But it is not just the central United…

Economy Grew 3.0% Annualized, Faster Than Expected in 4th Quarter; Or Did It?

From Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis

Reuters reports Economy grew faster than expected in fourth quarter

Gross domestic product expanded at a 3 percent annual rate, the quickest pace since the second quarter of 2010, the Commerce Department said on Wednesday in its second estimate.

The reading, which was up from the 2.8 percent pace the government reported last month and reflected modest upward revisions to almost all components of GDP, added to the recent run of fairly upbeat economic reports.

Consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of U.S. economic activity, was raised to a 2.1 percent rate of increase from 2 percent. At the same time, growth of real disposable income was revised up to a 1.4 percent rate from 0.8 percent.

“Consumers are spending from rising income rather than digging into their savings to spend,” said Shulyatyeva.

Business investment in capital goods was lifted to a 2.8 percent pace from 1.7 percent, but still weak compared to the recent trend. Outlays on home building were firmer than previously estimated, while investment on nonresidential structures was modestly weak.

While a rebuilding of inventories added a hefty 1.88 percentage points to GDP in the last quarter, the increase was revised down to $ 54.3 billion from $ 56.0 billion.

“The large boost to GDP growth from stock building in the fourth quarter is unlikely to be repeated in first quarter but the household accounts provide a much more encouraging backdrop for consumer spending,” said

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The Market Ticker – Time To Speak, Ticker Readers (Mayoral Recall)

From The Market Ticker

If you recall yesterday I wrote on Troy, which has a mayor that actually understands that one’s checkbook must balance, and that “free money” never is.

Well we now have one of the antagonists that believes in free-money-crapping unicorns out trying to drum up support.  These “journalists” can’t be bothered with the fact that the government doesn’t have the money they’re handing out and is refusing to tax it, thereby literally stealing it from everyone by debasing the money supply.  They also can’t be bothered with the mathematical fact that on the path we are on the entire federal government, our economy and nation will be bankrupted and implode within a decade, and unfunded programs like this are part of the reason why.

There are times to nut up or shut up.  This is one of them, and all you have to do is go to the link here and click on the “should the mayor be recalled” — indicating, of course, NO.