got asked this question on a radio interview recently. It’s a popular
question that I avoid answering as much as possible because there´s no
right answer. You can´t predict these things with any degree of
practical accuracy. No one knows when S%@! will Hit the Fan, and those
that venture guesses always claim the sky is falling next year. Claim
the same thing year after year and who knows, eventually you might get
lucky.
Now, in spite of my rule regarding this question this time I ventured
a response of some sort. Not a SHTF date, but lets say a time when I’d
be just a bit more concerned than usual. As always, I gave it based on
common sense, logic, a percentage of guestimation and a dose of my own
experience in this field.
When Cristina Kirchner got reelected with 54% of the votes I knew we
had to hurry up our plans and leave as soon as possible. The logic
behind this was the following: We had four years of Nestor Kirchner,
then four more years of her wife Cristina as president. Then Nestor died
and Cristina got reelected. There’s no husband anymore to take office
after her and unless she changes the constitution (which she is trying
to do) this will probably be her last term. Before the reelection
Cristina played it safe trying to keep things calm so as to not upset
people. It was safe to assume that after the reelection she would let go
and run with any plans she didn’t dare put into motion before the
elections. Not a week after her reelection, she started with some of the
most draconian financial measures, banning the purchase of dollars,
increasing taxes and the cost of living and inflation jumped when most
services went up in price.
If I had to bring out the crystal ball for what´s going to happen in
U.S., I´d say that Obama will play it safe also until the elections and
only afterwards play some of his more unpopular cards. Here again,
there’s nothing to lose after the election is won, and what he didn’t
dare go for in the first term he will try to do in his second one if he
wins.
Things I’d watch for:
1) Attempts to restrict the 2nd Amendment. Get your concealed carry permit now, just in case.
2) More taxes and controls for people that want to be self-reliant.
(food production, power, taxing the use of water) Try keeping a low
profile and fly under the radar.
3)As Obama said, “If You’ve Got a Business, You Didn’t Build That”,
so expect more controls and more start up costs for starting businesses
after the elections. Better do it now if you had something planned.
4)Because presidents that start wars tend to get reelected, the Iran
card may be the exception here and may be used before the elections. A
tragic incident of considerable proportions or terrorist attack (foreign
or domestic, as Matt Bracken would say) may also work.
FerFAL
Wed, Jul 18, 2012
Economy and News