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Hypothetical Israeli Attack on Iran

Sun, Jun 19, 2011

Food Storage

From Modern Survival Blog – surviving uncertain times


Guest Post: by ‘Be Informed’

The following is a possible scenario in which Israel finally fed up with the dangers of Iran having a nuclear program does something about it. I read yesterday that Israel’s defense force is having a drill called “Turning Point 5″ to begin tomorrow, source This inspired me to construct this story which unfolds in a possible (and likely) series of events.

Anything can happen in the world, and while this is a fictional story, much of what is told could definitely occur. The date I use is meant to make this story more interesting and seem more plausible.

Scenario for Israeli attack on the Iranian nuclear industry.

With much attention on Arab unrest and Israeli fear growing on radical Muslims taking up the vacuum of the failing governments surrounding them, Israel finally feels pushed into a corner to not allow a mortal enemy to mass produce nuclear weapons. Years of planning and training is going to be put into action.

It is decided that there is little time left and to not interfere with Ramadan and not to coincide with important Jewish religious observations such as the Jewish new year (Rosh Hashanah) and Yom Kippur (Day of Atonement) it is decided that the day after Ramadan, August 31, 2011 will be the “turning point” of making Israel safe. During the darkest part of the morning of August 31st., only two days after the new moon, it is felt the best possible time to neutralize the Iranian threat before it is too late.

Israel has gone through much preparation of making their fighters and bomber jets ready to fly the round trip of 1,000 miles+ to targets in Iran and the 1,000 miles+ trip back with minimum casualties to its air force. To make the 2,000 mile + round trip and to avoid detection as much as possible, and avoid someone tipping off Iran of impending attacks, modifications and strict planning had to be used for their air force.

Israeli plans are to use about 200 aircraft in attacking Iran and flying over Jordan, southern Iraq, Kuwait, then over the Persian Gulf to hit the Bushehr nuclear power plant and 5 other uranium enriching sites such as the one at Qom. As to not attract attention, 8 squadrons of 25-30 jets would fly separately and meet up together over the airspace of Iran. Many of the aircraft have been fitted with extra exterior fuel tanks, that can be dumped after use, to travel the extra distance. Flying behind the main strike force are several tanker aircraft to refuel those planes with critical fuel amounts on the return trip so they can make it back to Israel.

To further remain unnoticed as possible, pilots will fly the entire trip to Iran at the lowest possible altitude, skimming the surface, and flying at subsonic speeds so as not to break the sound barrier. This will lengthen the trip to over 80 minutes to Iran but will not alert anyone to fighter aircraft over their airspace. All aircraft also have been fitted with muffler type noise inhibitors to limit the amount of noise from their engines. A further modification is that the painting of a type of glaze that absorbs more light and prevents reflection back over most of the aircraft. On top of this a small fleet (14) of the attacking aircraft are actually stealth, shared technology from allies, to be used to mop up any missed special targets.

Much concern over the more advanced Russian anti-aircraft batteries in Iran, has the plan in which three Dolphin class submarines will launch their cruise missiles ONLY at all known anti-aircraft sites within the range of the Israeli jets. Israel feeling confident enough that their fighters can deal with any of the Iranian air force that is quick and lucky enough to get into the air before Israel accomplishes their mission, will leave the airfields alone.

A little past midnight August 31st. the first submarine launched ballistic missiles (SLBM) start impacting Iranian SAM (surface to air missile) sites. About 5 minutes later precision guided bunker buster bombs are pummeling the Bushehr nuclear plant. Ten minutes after this all remaining Iranian targets are being hit. Within 25 minutes of the first bomb dropped it is over. Most Israeli aircraft are screaming back to Israel, now unconcerned who sees them. Only 17 aircraft are lost, and the Bushehr plant is almost completely destroyed. The country of Israel is now under the highest possible alert waiting to engage the massive missile bombardment with their own Arrow and other air defense systems that will surely come very soon.

It is now 5:00 PM ET (eastern time on the United States) and here like all over the world breaking news is flashing of the attacks on Iran by Israel. Stock markets in other countries have halted because of the volume of sell offs. Oil futures have risen already to $ 175 a barrel. People are talking about the end of the world and World War 3 only being hours away. Every western country is on alert for attacks from terrorist groups loyal to Iran. Jewish synagogues around the world are especially ready for reprisals. The United Nations are called in for an immediate emergency meeting.

Now 8:00 PM ET and still nothing from Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas, or any other Muslim country attacking Israel. The United Nations has introduced all sorts of punishing measures against Israel for attacking a sovereign country, with the United States vetoing any actions against Israel. People are a little less panicked because of Iran’s lack of any action. The general feeling is that Iran did not have the will and strength because of internal problems to avenge itself. Oil futures have calmed some down to $ 155 per barrel.

12:05 AM ET Thursday, September 1. In Israel some people are emerging from their bomb shelters feeling safer, after 8 hours in which nothing has happened. Some people are even going to work like every other day, still ready to flee immediately to safety. Suddenly in the cities of Tel Aviv and Haifa there are very large explosions. There was no air raid warning or any missiles in sight. Two very large truck bombs each with several tons of high explosives were detonated towards the center of each city. Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas, denies the attacks, but says Israel deserved it. While such an attack that has killed hundreds of Israeli citizens would have resulted in a fierce Israeli response prior to the attack on Iran, Israel decides to not further antagonize the whole Muslim world and does nothing. Figuring IF this was the worst that Iran and its terrorists could do, so be it, they are lucky.

9:30 AM ET Thursday. The United States stock market is opening and nothing other than the terrorists attack on Israel has happened, not even one rocket from Gaza. Stocks are down 450 points and oil is hovering at $ 130. Muslims around the world are calling the Iranians cowards as radiation from the destroyed power plant begins spreading over the west coast of Iran. People are not uneasy because of the radiation or the possibility of war, they are more worried of more terrorist attacks where they are. At the end of the day the stock market has only fallen 550 points and oil has stabilized at $ 125. From the economic point of view people are using the old cliche, “we all dodged a very big bullet”.

It is now 24 hours after the Iranian attack, 4:00 PM ET and the crisis has diminished much, the world is still on alert for an Al Qaeda attack because it is felt only Al Qaeda could have pulled off such a terrorist attack on Israeli soil. The thought also being Al Qaeda is trying to stir things up. Israel meantime has picked up an extremely disturbing feed from its satellite link-ups of Iran. On the far eastern side of Iran there are long range Shahab missiles taking off. As the missiles head westward, more missiles in the central part of Iran and finally the western part of Iran become airborne. After reaching the middle point between Iran and Israel, Scud missiles from mobile launchers in eastern Syria begin their ascension into the sky. Shortly after this, dozens of rockets and Zelzar medium range missiles begin breaking the sky over most of Lebanon.

The strategy here is to have so many missiles launch in a synchronized timely manner, that Israel’s rock solid air defenses are totally overwhelmed and fail. It works well, as most Israeli cities are heavily hit. The lack of pinpoint accuracy accuracy of the missiles have spared Israel’s Dimona nuclear power plant from destruction as the only bright point to Israel. Hamas at this time also starts firing it shorter range Katyusha rockets and some Fajr longer range rockets from Gaze into southern Israel. Iran’s submarine force and naval ships does not have the real capability of hitting land targets in Israel and is not a factor.

5:00 PM, ET. The letdown of worldwide panic is now back at fever pitch, far worse than when everything started. Oil futures are skyrocketing above $ 200. Word is still waiting for U.S. involvement in what is happening in this conflict. Hezbollah is now using a different tactic than it used in the last war by having many of its rockets filled with incineration and extremely flammable fluid (napalm like) to ignite and start out of control fires all over Israel. Dried wild brush in the countryside that hasn’t seen much rain since spring goes up in an explosive manner. As the Israeli defense force (IDF) begins bombing runs on targets in Syria to stop the missiles, divisions of armored vehicles and hundreds of tanks head into Lebanon to stop Hezbollah. On top of this in Jerusalem there is a mass uprising of the Palestinians that have waited all their lives for this moment that are very well armed and have decided to take “their” city back and face the Israeli army and police to the death.

11:00 PM ET. Israel is in full war with Syria, Hezbollah, Hamas, and Iran. There is a type of civil war on the entire West Bank. Israel has inadvertently brought a temporary peace to the middle eastern countries with their deep civil unrest, everyone now can focus their hate on the Jewish populations and Israel. The next move will be a gross miscalculation that Israel makes.

1:00 AM ET, Friday, September 2. The United States is still allowing Israel to handle itself much like other wars and has not yet committed anything of its military force to help. Israel knows that it has to shut down one of the war fronts so it can redeploy some of its armed forces to reinforce positions. The Gaze Palestinians have been moving tons of weapons from Egypt into Gaza for a long time, even more so since the borders were finally opened. The last thing Israel want is to try to retake the Sinai region of Egypt and open another war front with a heavily armed Egypt. The notion with Israel is to literally carpet bomb the entire Gaza area to completely stop all rocket attacks, some that have done further damage to the Dimona power plant. It is thought to deal with international condemnation after Israel survives the attacks.

1:45 AM ET. Israel begins leveling Gaza, within 20 minutes of artillery shelling from land and sea and aircraft stop all but 1 or 2 rockets from being launched. Over 100,000 in the densely populated city are dead, while the injured and unharmed are heading into border cities in the Egyptian Sinai. Practically non stop rocket fire from Hezbollah and Syria continues as Israel finds a huge number of Iranian fighters meeting the IDF in Lebanon and Syria. Iranian military has been flowing into both countries as rapidly as possible. To make matters even more dire Muslims from around the world are volunteering to come fight besides their Muslim brothers wherever the Muslims are battling the Jewish state.

7:00 AM ET. Those that are waking up from what sleep they could in the U.S. are turning on the news ro discover a major war going on in the Middle East and humanitarian crises that are awful. There is so much smoke over Israel, Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, parts of Iraq and Saudi Arabia that it from space it looks like a volcano has erupted. Word of the Gazan bombing has spread to the entire world and there are now millions of extremely enraged Muslims wanting desperately to fight and kill anyone Jewish. In Pakistan there was an attempted coup from radical Muslims to overtake the government.

While Israel has a superior military they are having very difficult times making gains against an ever growing military in Syria and Lebanon that are pushing forces deep into the West Bank. Having to engage tens of thousands of Arab civilians that are very well armed within Israel is putting much strain on the IDF. Sabotage by Israeli Arabs to Israel’s infrastructure such as the power grid, bridges, water supplies, etc, is also taking its toll. The endless barrage of thousands of missiles continue.

9:30 AM ET. The U.S. stock market surprisingly open even through this war going on. It takes less than 30 seconds of rapid fire selling to trigger an automatic shutdown put in after the stock crash of 1987 after it falls 10%. Oil has hit $ 305 per barrel and OPEC decides to completely halt production for one week. This is not to punish America and western countries, but it knows that few will be able to afford and buy oil at these prices. After the war there will be an enormous glut of oil that will plummet prices below $ 10 a barrel. The notice of no oil production sends mass panic buying of gasoline all over the world. People are dangerously storing gas in anything that will hold liquid and most gasoline stations have been emptied within 2 hours.

When the stock market restarts trading, the market immediately drops 20% and is shut down again. After reopening the stock market drops 30% in less than a minute and is shut down for the day and the Labor Day weekend. People in the U.S., perhaps from the past gas wars of the 1970′s, seem like they are more concerned about filling up their automobiles than the possibility of a food storage occurring next.

7:00 PM ET Friday. The unthinkable is happening, Israel is losing the war. Most of the civilian population is safe in the civil defense shelters that are throughout Israel. Reinforcements from Muslims around the world including military weapons from Russia and China to Iran are flowing in and hitting the IDF with too much to handle. Israel is getting help from the U.S. in forms of the most advanced weapons available but having extremely difficulty transferring it to the battlefield. The U.S. realizes unless something is done soon to save Israel that either Israel will have to surrender to the Muslim armies or be forced to use its nuclear weapons to stop the advancement of enemy troops into Israel.

Even with dozens of naval ships and 3 aircraft carriers within striking distances of saving Israel, the decision to not intervene with U.S. military unless the Russian and Chinese do is made. The thought of starting a third world war with Russia and China is just not worth it. The U.S. stands by and waits to see what happens next.

1:00 AM ET Saturday, September 3. Israel is being torn apart above the ground by Arabs that have come through every open part of the country. Arabs from every Muslim country have come to help push Israel back into the sea and to reclaim “their” holy land for Islam. Israel is pulling back its army to defend the homeland and save what is left of its cities. Israel knows that enemy forces will follow the retreat from the north and east and threatens Syria, Iran and other Muslim countries with nuclear annihilation unless there is an immediate end to aggression against it. The hundreds of years of rampant hatred between the Jews and Muslims has reached a point of no return and any threats are going to be ignored. The Muslim army feels it can go into Israel at long last and get rid of the Jewish people once and for all.

6:45 AM ET. Enemy troops are now flowing into Israel and Israel decides to save its people to use the lesser of its nuclear arsenal, neutron bombs to stop the advance. Over 60 of these bombs are detonated over the enemy from the borders of the West Bank to the Golan Heights and Lebanon. This works and has stopped or slowed down any further advance. Muslim armies are in shock, hundreds of armored vehicles and tanks are stopped in their tracks. Tens of thousands of enemy troops are dead. For now Israel has regained the upper hand.

8:00 AM ET. The whole world is in a mass frenzy. Now that the Labor Day weekend has started for the U.S. there is a deep fear and the grocery store shelves are been ransacked everywhere. Those traveling for the holiday are mostly trying to get to safety in far away retreats. The riots that are breaking out are still mostly over no gasoline. Black market gasoline is popping up everywhere and those desperate enough are spending up to $ 100 a gallon for gas. Some of the gas is even watered down with one part gasoline and one part water. Many people end up with automobiles that are as dead to them if they were empty of any gas.

8:30 AM ET. There is more breaking news that there are legitimate rumors that Israel has started using smaller nuclear weapons to stop invading armies. There is now such alarm and terror over the planet that has never been seen before. The intensity of panic is magnitudes higher than even the most intense times of the Cuban Missile crisis. People all over the world are actually paralyzed with fear.

8:40 AM ET. Many of the missiles coming into Israel are no longer using the conventional explosives. These new missiles are exploding over targets in mid air and with a fine mist. The Muslim armies have upped the ante and are using chemical weapons, mostly the worst kind, VX nerve gas. Muslims hold back the use of biological weapons for fears of it getting out of control and because they actually don’t want to poison, this so called “holy land” that they want, for years or decades.

8:55 AM ET. More missiles fall on Israel. The shear volume of stored missiles to be used against Israel was vastly underestimated at 40,000 to 90,000, it was closer to 300,000. Israel knows it has lost with its conventional army and starts to implement “Project Samson”. From what is left Israel begins the sequence of firing off its nuclear weapons at all its enemies. Within 1/2 hour, 14 countries and over 100 targets, mostly cities are hit. Omitted from the targets are Turkey because of its membership in NATO, and Pakistan because of all the nuclear weapons it processes. The war is almost over as most of the Middle East lays in ruins. One more desperate act remains unresolved and coming from Iran.

9:25 AM ET. It seems that Iran, which is a smoldering waste land, has saved their own project Samson for this end time. Iran actually did have a small arsenal of nuclear weapons and mounted on the also small number of large range cruise missile it had perfected over the years. Five cruise missiles are fired from the western mountains of Iran.

9;28 AM ET. Saturday. Word of multiple nuclear strikes over the entire Middle East has now reached most countries and these places are thrown almost into immediate anarchy. The police and other law enforcement are just as afraid of the end of the world as everyone else and abandons their jobs to try to get to safety and be with their families. Employess of every type of business leaves their jobs, while some try to take what they can out of the store that they might need, especially grocery stores. People rush into desserted stores in every city and take and grab whatever they can and run for it. People do not care about anything other than grabbing and getting to safety. Others commit suicide. Many just sit quietly in shock.

For countries thousands of miles away the order of their countries have totally collapsed. The mere fear factor of the end of the world has stopped society and civilization as people, both trained and untrained for just such circumstances are in total panic and absolute disarray.

10:30 AM ET. The horrors of this 3 Day War has arrive via cruise missiles to impact Tel Aviv and nearby areas. Five mushroom clouds break the late afternoon sky as the final act to a war that ends where it started.

6:00 PM ET Saturday. Much communication is down from almost all people walking (running) off their jobs over the end of the world hype to be with their families, make their peace, hide, before they felt they were going to die in World War 3. Fallout is spreading everywhere and even though the dangers of the U.S. and NATO forces fighting a world war against Russia and China has dropped, all sides remain ready to push the button. What is left of those that remained loyal in the world’s military are attempting to begin to restore some degree of order.

Labor day, September 5. News is getting out to those few that can still receive it that a fragile ceasefire is holding between what is left of Israel and what is left of the Middle East. Most countries outside the war zone look like they have been hit themselves. Worldwide cities are burning and fires are everywhere as the arsonists have tried to burn down what they hate so much. Nothing is working, public utilities are out, there is no one to repair or operate them if they were working. Gangs of criminals prevent any safe movement throughout most cities. There is no monetary system anywhere and people only trade for what they need. Most people are cowering down in their homes that are dark with no running water. The fuel to run vehicles has gone dry and anyone driving around anywhere risks death from those armed taking their vehicle or at least the fuel running it.

Tuesday, September 6. What would be the start of a new week after a long holiday weekend is another day without any electricity or fresh water, another day of trying to survive. Much of the oil wells and tankers to ship the oil is gone in the Middle East. There is no $ 500 per barrel oil because there is no recognized money for the time being. Any spare oil is being rationed off solely by the countries’ military’s. Food has become scarce and starvation has begun everywhere. People are only eating what they can get that might be flying or crawling by. In very lucky areas military trucks have begun bringing in some supplies and are met by rioting crowds.

October 1. It has been over a month since the 3 Day War had begun and some social order has been brought back. Many cities have limited electricity and water, mostly just to shelters with large number of people. Food and other supplies must be brought in and almost all the surviving people are totally dependent on this to survive. 20% of the population is now dead over the planet from disease, radiation exposure, starvation, smaller war type conflicts. Practically every country is under martial law.

In many areas people are forced to give DNA samples, fingerprints, or other means of identification such as implants in order to receive any food or supplies from that government. Cash money is gone almost everywhere and only a credit system is used for all transactions between the establishment and the common citizen. There is even talk of an universal credit system tied into one place replacing money totally. All precious metals now are being collected to be used within industry and the rebuilding process. Trading and bartering has become the only means of selling and buying outside the system between individuals.

December 25, Christmas. Much of the social order is back, but unfortunately not many of the personal freedoms. People celebrate the holiday with the meager rations that they have, and any gifts exchanged are those that actually have great value to the person in someway; extra food, new clothes, a necessary tool, a blanket, etc. Individuals are constantly watched and the surveillance in most countries is that of a total police state. There is a new monetary system that is totally based on credit only, and people are payed a certain wage that applies to this credit system. The rate of wages of people are determined how much value they have to the society. This is determined by one of the two new world governments.

30% of the original population of the world has died, most from starvation from lack of oil to power the machinery necessary to harvest crops and transport food to those in need. Most people are now migrating from the colder climates to warmer areas that are putting additional strain on those places that are already overcrowded.

March 1, 2012. It has been almost 6 months since the 3 day war has ended and there are two world governments; the Chinese and Russian alliances that govern most of Asia and South American, some of Africa, and the Free American Federation that consists of United States and North America, Australia and New Zealand, most of Europe and a few scattered countries of Africa. Each world government has similarities such as a hold on the citizens of the countries they are part of. All people are implanted with a tiny homing chip that can be tracked anywhere on the planet. One of the governments implants the chip towards the highest point of the spine of a person, and the other government puts the chip into the right hand of a person. Both governments have completely abolished any form of money and solely are based on a credit rating system, even for trade between the two world governments.

Much of the remaining oil and natural energy resources are being used to grow and harvest crops and used for transportation of goods. The remaining energy resources are being used for industry and manufacturing and public transportation. Very few people have the luxury of having their own transportation. Those few fortunate people that have their own automobiles have enough credits to obtain an automobile and then enough credits left over to get the fuel to run them. The oil fields of the Middle East are still contaminated from the nuclear exchanges of last year and this 70% world reduction has made oil too important for anything other than survival.

As history have proven again and again both world governments do not trust each other and both sides have accumulated many more weapons than before the 3 Day War to possibility use against each other in the future.

September 3, 2012. It has been one year since the 3 Day War ended and almost all oil fields in the Middle East are unusable. Several diseases have broken out over the world during the past 3 months and the world population now stands at just under 4 billion. People have adapted to their new life styles and most have accepted being monitored like a prisoner in their own country. The only good point is there is very little crime as people that commit any crime are immediately found and prosecuted. Many of those found guilty of crimes disappear, others are stripped of little rights they have and put into labor camps without receiving any credits for work done. During the past two weeks there have been several disputes over energy resources from the two world governments. Social order in the hardest sense is back and very few dare to try to protest against it in either world government. Many people wish for the good old days of vast unemployment and uncertainty of the future.

While this story depicts an almost worst case scenario, as history has proven that these events are quite possible in the future. Israel for one is a powerhouse that is thought cannot fail in a military sense, but throughout history many other military’s that were quite superior were defeated simply by being too outnumbered. Governments are a reflection of people and when faced with panic can and go anything that would seem irrational in the calm sense of normalcy. People in the social order when faced with a real or unrealistic fear will also scatter and do things that are not beneficial to those around them and themselves.

Human beings seek order and events that are stable and could very well in a situation that requires rationing and a police state to back it up, actually support it or at least go along with it. The decision to not to starve to death and accept food, supplies, and safe shelter in exchange for complete compliance and conformity to whatever government that has formed is not a very difficult choice for most people. Those holding survival over individuals can take over most people without firing a shot against anyone as long as the circumstances are right.
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